Learning Stories
by
Mario deSantis
mariodesantis@hotmail.com
“I am a Canadian, free to speak without fear, free to worship in my own way, free to stand for what I think right, free to oppose what I believe wrong, and free to choose those who shall govern my country.” - -The Rt. Hon. John Diefenbaker, Canadian Bill of Rights, 1960
“The whole judicial system is at issue, it's worth more than one person.”--Serge Kujawa, Saskatchewan Crown Prosecutor, 1991
“The system is not more worth than one person's rights.”--Mario deSantis, 2002
Ensign Stories © Mario deSantis and Ensign
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In 1995, realizing that Saskatchewan Health was using uncommunicative research to direct health reform I wrote the paper "A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of Saskatchewan Health District Boards: Working Example for Prairie West Health District(1)." In this paper, I used the simple regression analysis method to forecast the elderly population for the Prairie West Health District, and the rationale for using this method was two fold; firstly, I didn't know any better method, and secondly, I wanted to use a method which could readily be understood and used by anybody with a bit of knowledge in spreadsheet programming. Today we have the System Dynamics methodology to model complex changing systems(2); however, our research institutions have been reluctant to abandon the highly manipulative tools of "evidence based statistical analysis(3)" and have continued with their protective fashion, covering up important assumptions, using data selectively to support their prejudices, and acting like an oracle(4)(5). Modeling population projections is not an exact science but an iterative and reflective effort shared by all the concerned parties. Today, as I reflect on the population study for the North East Health District, I understand the importance to know a better projection for the future elderly population of the North East Health District for health planning. Therefore, I have the further insight to consider age grouping of one year rather than five years for people with age over sixty-four. Sheena MacRae, Information Analyst with Saskatchewan Health, provided me with the additional information I required for this elderly population scenarios for the NEHD district and the results have been tabulated in age grouping of five years. References/endnotes 1. A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of Saskatchewan Health District Boards by Mario deSantis, February 1995 http://www3.sk.sympatico.ca/desam/paper-popmodel-regr.htm 2. System Dynamics Society http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/ 3. If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts'--quote by Albert Einstein 4. Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, section 'Protective versus Reflective Modelling,' page 858 http://www.mhhe.com/business/opsci/sterman/ 5. The incredible abuse of Saskatchewan No-Fault insurance, by Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis, May 28, 2000
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