The limitations of statistics as expressed by George H. Gallup

Professor George Gallup(1) is the famous pollster and the father of modern statistics. It is alleged that he once did a study showing that, in long-term predictions, laymen did better than the experts. This is obviously the result of the 'forest and trees phenomenon' whereby the experts become so wrapped up in the immediate difficulties of their studies that they cannot look at the ongoing social and economic changes affecting their studies. This is what has been happening to Dr. Cassidy, he was so wrapped up with the million dollars he received from SGI to conduct his study that his mind froze and focused solely on counting numbers coming from the SGI's files. In particular, Dr. Cassidy has stated that "in order to get a meaningful indication of what the rate of recovery might really be... our analyses are based on 5,398 claims, making ours the largest study ever reported on this subject(2)." We must remind Dr. Cassidy that he cannot carry statistical researches just by looking at the big numbers and that he needs to listen to the stories of all the people involved in his researches. If Dr. Cassidy doesn't listen to people as he conducts his researches he would put himself in the same situation as Professor Gallup when he jokingly stated that "I could prove God statistically." Statistics should represent our personal stories in dealing with our societal challenges and not just numbers, and this deep understanding led Mark Twain to say "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics(3)."

Conclusions

I am baffled how a statistical research, such as Dr. Cassidy's on No-Fault insurance, has assumed an importance well beyond its scientific community. I came upon Dr. Cassidy's study as a casual event supporting my contention that our leadership is corrupted, and now I realize that this study has widespread implications affecting the integrity of our politics, our government, our universities, our justice system, our institutions, and ultimately our freedom of expression. This article is a logical evolvement of my work and I thank my silent friend and publisher Tim Shire who has inspired many of my writings with his art work expressed in his images and stories. Also, I want to express my appreciation to Lorie Terry(4), first, for having sent me last month an email which triggered my further interest in No-Fault insurance and the opportunity to know her unbound energies and her firm commitment against No-Fault insurance; and second, for having provided most of the source material for writing this article.

We have been conducting business for a long time by playing the number game(5), and as a consequence the tool of statistics has been misused to support the hidden agendas of the few and privileged(6). Therefore, I am happy I could say few words on Dr. Cassidy's botched research and emphasize how the lack of human respect is taking away little by little our freedoms. I am also happy to see that my son James is becoming academically and socially involved in our affairs and I thank him for his assistance in the writing of this article, and most of all, I thank him for providing me with the hope that some of our youths will be able to shake up the abusive power of money on behalf of a better life and creation of real wealth for all of us.

References & Endnotes

Quote by Donella Meadows "challenging a paradigm is not a part-time job. It is not sufficient to make your point once and then blame the world for not getting it. The world has a vested interest in, a commitment to, not getting it. The point has to be made patiently and repeatedly, day after day after day" ftp://sysdyn.mit.edu/ftp/sdep/Roadmaps/RM1/D-4143-1.pdf http://iisd1.iisd.ca/pcdf/meadows/default.htm

General reference: Articles by Mario deSantis published by Ensign http://www.ftlcomm.com/ensign/authors/desantis.html

Dr. Cassidy's study on no-fault insurance: supporting another shock absorber, by Mario deSantis, April 20, 2000 http://www.ftlcomm.com/ensign/desantisArticles/2000/desantis164/nofault.html

The fight against No-Fault Insurance is a fight for our Freedom: Attend the Public Forum at the Saskatoon Public Library on May 13, 2000, by Mario deSantis, May 9, 2000 http://www.ftlcomm.com/ensign/desantisArticles/2000/desantis168/Cassidy.html

1. School of Thinking, George Gallup http://www.sot.com.au/school/gallup.htm

2. Critics should submit own research, by Dr. David Cassidy, letter to the Editor, The StarPhoenix, May 17, 2000, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan

3. Samuel Langhorne Clemens a.k.a. Mark Twain, 1835-1910. What does Mark Twain mean? On river boats, one member of the crew always stood near the railing measuring the depth of the water with a long cord which had flags spaced a fathom (six feet) apart. When the crewman saw the flags disappear he would call out "Mark One!" for one fathom and for two fathoms he called out "Mark Twain!" Two fathoms meant safe clearance for river boats, so Sam Clemens chose a name which not only recalled his life on the river but which also had a reassuring "all's well" meaning. http://www.robinsonresearch.com/LITERATE/AUTHORS/Twain.htm

4. Lorie Terry is a spokesperson for the Coalition Against No Fault Insurance. Box 27004, 240 Albert St., Regina, Saskatchewan, S4R 8R8 (306) 546-4424, <lorie@dlcwest.com> http://www.angelfire.com/nf/coalitionagainstnf/

5. An advice to our leaders and bureaucrats: Stop managing by the number game and begin managing by your stories, by Mario deSantis, March 1, 2000 http://ensign.ftlcomm.com/desantisArticles/2000/desantis127/managingbynumbers.html

6. The misuse of Statistics as a scientific tool, by Mario deSantis, January 20, 2000 http://ensign.ftlcomm.com/desantisArticles/2000/desantis99/StatsSurvey.html