The world is getting more dangerous as the United States and Israel
appear to have concerted plans for a sequential regime change in
Syria. I also learn today that the United States gives $15,139,178
per day to the Israeli government and military and $205,479 to
Palestinian non governmental organizations.
The United States has an ongoing trade and budget deficit of some
$1 trillion out of its total economy of some $10.5 trillion; it has
a foreign debt of some $6 trillion and I wonder what kind of
despicable courage for the Bush administration to blame China for
its weapon of undervalued currency against the dollar.
What is funny is that while China is experiencing a trade surplus
with the United States in excess of $103 billion it is using its
foreign reserves of some $346.5 billion to buy US treasuries bills
to finance the United States deficit. If China was not buying US
treasuries, or if it shifted its reserves to the Euro then interest
rates would go up and the American economy could be going into a
recession while at the same time, the dollar would further decline
in value against major currencies.
Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie estimates that more than $1
trillion of US market capitalisation depends on inexpensive Chinese
imports. In fact for every $1 in product value China receives from
exports to the United States, that same product is resold in the
American retail market at $4 to $5. It is also important to note
that China is expected to experience an overall 2003 international
trade surplus of roughly $10 billion while the United States is
expected to experience an overall trade deficit of some $500
billion.
We must also understand, contrary to the perception of American
media, that the Chinese economy is more open than many other
powerful countries and that its advertised communist dictatorial
economic system is a fiction of the American Neo-Uber-Alles holed up
inside the White House. Economist Nicholas Lardy, of the Washington,
D.C., Institute for International Economics, has recently stated
that "China's prices are market rather than state determined,
most of its product markets are competitive and with the reduction
of tariffs its economy is open." Another economist, Laurence
Brahm, who lives in China, has stated in an interview he held with
Asia Times "I do not think that China's state control over
political and economic powers is any greater than, say, the US
federal government's." Further, the understanding that China has
an open economy is attested by the fact that China has become the
largest Foreign Direct Investment recipient in the world in
attracting $52.7 billion of the $143 billion invested worldwide in
2002.
The economy of China appears to be overheating and there are
indications it is growing at some 14% per year in this current month
of October. Chinese unprecedented economic growth is accompanied by
the fear of the collapse of the property boom in its major cities as
the banking system is experiencing bad loans in the order of some
45%. The present Chinese currency, pegged at 8.3 yuan/dollar, is
providing growth for China, stability for the eastern Asia economy,
and it is helping at the same time the American economy.
I agree with the position that China has taken and it should not
let its currency float before correcting the problems of its
financial and banking system.
References
Pertinent articles published in Ensign
Wealth of economic articles collected by The China Study Group
http://www.chinastudygroup.org/newspage.php
Lobe, Jim Bush Stance on Syria Hit Shows Neo-Cons Still Hold Sway
October 8, 2003 Inter Press Service, http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/1008-05.htm
If Americans Knew U.S. Assistance http://www.ifamericansknew.org/stats/usaid.html
Reuters US gross external debt more than $6 trillion October 8,
2003 http://www.forbes.com/home_asia/newswire/2003/10/08/rtr1103708.html
Crooks, Jack Politics, jobs and the yuan September 18, 2003 Asia
Times, http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/EI18Ad02.html
Koretz, Gene China Isn't Hijacking Jobs September 26, 2003
Business Week, http://www.chinastudygroup.org/newsarchive.php?id=2767
Dolven, Ben and David Murphy Riding Out a Storm. The barrage of
criticism from the United States about China's currency policies is
at best misguided. October 5, 2003 FEER, http://www.chinastudygroup.org/newsarchive.php?id=2846
McGregor, Richard China in danger of overheating, say economists
October 8, 2003 Financial Times, http://www.chinastudygroup.org/newsarchive.php?id=2864
Balfour, Frederik Another Big Reason China Won't Revalue. Already
awash in bad loans, its Big Four banks could go under if depositors
bolt October 2, 2003 Business Week, http://www.chinastudygroup.org/newsarchive.php?id=2829
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